Fasting plasma glucose and risk of incident ischemic stroke or transient ischemic attacks: a prospective cohort study.

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE Diabetes and impaired fasting glucose are diagnosed based on an elevated plasma glucose level after an overnight fast. The diagnostic cutpoint of diabetes arises from the threshold for development of microvascular complications. Our aim was to examine the associations between clinical relevant categories of fasting glucose levels and the risk of incident ischemic stroke. METHODS Patients with documented coronary heart disease who were screened for inclusion in a secondary prevention clinical trial (n=13,999) were followed-up. At baseline, medical histories were obtained and plasma glucose and lipids assessed at a central study laboratory. During a 6- to 8-year follow-up period 1037 cases were identified with ischemic cerebrovascular disease, of which, after reviewing hospital records with diagnoses of cerebrovascular disease, 576 cases were verified to have had ischemic stroke or transient ischemic attacks. RESULTS Increasing fasting glucose level categories were positively associated with increasing age, male gender, body mass index, hypertension, total cholesterol, and triglycerides, and were inversely associated with high-density lipoprotein cholesterol and percent high-density lipoprotein of total cholesterol. In comparison with patients with fasting glucose levels of 90 to 99 mg/dL (n=3706) who constitute the largest category, the odds ratios of ischemic cerebrovascular disease, adjusting for potential confounders, were 1.47 (95% CI, 1.07 to 2.02) for fasting glucose <80, 1.22 (0.98 to 1.52) for 80 to 89, 1.27 (1.02 to 1.60) for 100 to 109, 1.60 (1.26 to 2.03) for 110 to 125, 1.82 (1.33 to 2.49) for 126 to 140, and 2.82 (2.32 to 3.43) for >140 mg/dL. Similar J-shaped associations were observed in analysis excluding patients with known diagnosis of diabetes mellitus. CONCLUSIONS The association between fasting plasma glucose and incident ischemic cerebrovascular events in patients with pre-existing atherothrombotic disease is J-shaped. Rates increase for fasting plasma glucose levels >100 mg/dL and also for those with low fasting glucose levels. These findings may carry important implications for prevention strategies.